Investing: The Evidence

One of the things that makes rockwealth different to other financial planning firms is the fact that our investment philosophy is based entirely on evidence.

Evidence-based Investing

If you go to a doctor, you expect them to have studied medicine to a very high level. If they recommend medication or surgery or medication, you would assume that they are basing that advice on evidence that the treatment has consistently worked for patients in the past. You would also expect the doctor to have your very best interests at heart.

There is no reason why investment advice should be any different. Unfortunately, though, for several decades, it wasn’t like that at all. Until 2012, financial advisers in the UK were paid commissions by fund management and insurance companies to sell their products, and more expensive products generally earned higher commissions. This led to millions of people being sold investments they would have been better off avoiding.

But there is another problem. Historically, advisers have mainly recommended high-fee, actively managed funds — in other words, funds that try to outperform the market through a combination of stock picking and market timing. The evidence overwhelmingly shows that only around 1% of funds beat the market, over the long term, net of costs. Furthermore, those very few funds that do outperform are almost impossible to identify in advance.

The good news is that there is an alternative. More than 60 years of independent, peer-reviewed, academic research has shown that the most efficient way to invest is simply to buy and hold a broadly diversified portfolio of low-cost index funds and, other than rebalancing your portfolio every year or so to restore the original asset allocation, to keep trading to an absolute minimum.

Despite a huge rise in the popularity of index funds in the United States, most advisers in the UK continue to recommend actively managed funds instead. rockwealth, by contrast, has been one of the pioneers in so-called evidence-based investing. By using low-cost funds, we have been able to save our clients up to £80,000 a year each in investment fees alone.

 

evidence investing
Keith Cuthbertson, Professor of Finance, Cass Business

“What is needed in the investment world is clarity and the long view. These videos provide both”

investing
William McNabb, CEO of the Vanguard Group

“On the topic of investing Robin Powell’s new documentary is the best 45 minutes you will ever spend. With the help of clear and compelling experts, Robin lays out what everyone interested in the markets must know. It will be required viewing at Vanguard!”

Download Investing: The Evidence Booklet

INVESTING THE EVIDENCE

Email us here or speak to one of our experts today.

01242 505 505

Evidence-based Investing Explained

When we explain our philosophy to new clients they often, understandably, express surprise that being evidence-based is a distinguishing feature at all. Surely all advisers make investment recommendations based on what has actually been proven to work? The truth, sadly, is very different. Many advisers still rely on hunches and guesswork, and most continue to recommend just the sort of products that have failed investors for decades.

To explain our evidence-based approach to investing, we commissioned Robin Powell and his team at Ember Regis Group to produce an online documentary about it, called Investing: The Evidence. The documentary will be available online and via our social media channels and could be the most important investment in your future financial security that you will ever make.

Here is a brief synopsis:

  • Active Investing
  • Passive Investing
  • Factor Investing
  • Risk
  • Behaviour
  • Advice

What do we mean by evidence?

Most investment professionals would claim to base their methodology on some form of evidence. So then, what sort of evidence can investors rely on? Generally speaking, reliable evidence has four main characteristics.

It’s independent

Too often, reports are produced, or else commissioned and paid for, by companies with a commercial interest in publicising the outcome. Most academics, by contrast, are independent. They don’t have an agenda or a point to prove; instead they leave it to financial practitioners to act on their findings or not.

It’s based on robust data analysis

We all know the old adage about lies, damned lies and statistics. Often findings are based on too short a time period or a sample that’s too small. Some times the fund industry ignores biases in the data, other times it compares returns to the wrong benchmark, or it quotes performance figures before the full impact of fees and charges.

It’s been peer-reviewed

Publishing research in academic journals gives other academics the chance to analyse the methodology, outcomes and conclusions of a study and provide their own review as to the reliability of the study. Caution is required — there are journals that are less credible than others — but evidence that has been properly peer-reviewed should carry far more weight with investors.

The results have been reproduced

The fourth and final characteristic of findings you can depend on is that they’ve been tested across multiple environments and timeframes. There needs to be a strong element of repeatability to demonstrate that the findings of a particular study weren’t just down to random luck.

The lesson, then, is to be very cautious about anyone claiming that a particular investment strategy is evidence-based. Even if it fails just one of these four important tests, it’s probably worth ignoring.